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Holiday Consumer Jitters, Holiday Growth Projections, IEEPA Tariff Refund Phase 3 Nuances
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In this week's edition: a look at holiday projections with consumer jitters and positive growth predictions plus insights on the challenges of phase 3 IEEPA tariff refunds.


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Top 3

1. [READ] Retailers, consumers both on edge as the holidays approach

  • 45% of consumers report insecure household finances, while over 70% prioritize saving money this season.
  • More than one-third shopped summer holiday sales, making earlier promotions important for capturing seasonal demand.
  • Retailers are keeping inventory lean to limit costly leftovers, increasing stockout risks during holiday shopping.

2. [READ] U.S. Holiday Shopping Season to Hit Record $275.1 Billion Online, Rising 6.7% YoY

  • Adobe forecasts $275.1 billion in holiday online sales, up 6.7%, with discounts reaching 30% off.
  • October online spending is projected at $95.8 billion, up 8%.
  • AI referral traffic is forecast to grow 130%, while social and affiliate share of revenue are projected to grow 17% and 12% respectively.

3. [READ] Time to File? Latest from Customs May Convince Some Businesses to File Court Actions for IEEPA Tariff Refunds

  • CAPE Phase 3 opens October 6 for finally liquidated entries, but refunds are limited to named plaintiffs with court orders requiring reliquidation.
  • Importers can pursue litigation now or await an appellate ruling or class certification that could expand refunds.
  • Be prepared to file protests if your protest period is expiring and your entry is not yet eligible for a refund in CAPE.

In Other News

[READ] Shopify opens checkout to browser-based AI agents

  • Shopify now lets browser-based AI agents complete purchases on eligible merchant websites with buyer authorization.
  • New checkout tools let agents review orders, update delivery details, and purchase through Shop Pay.
  • WebMCP gives agents structured checkout access, reducing reliance on screenshots and scraping merchant web pages.

[READ] Consumer optimism slides to lowest level since 2014

  • Consumer confidence fell to 81.9, its lowest level since 2014.
  • Consumers expect 6.1% inflation, while more respondents rated personal finances bad than good this month.
  • Job openings declined in August, though hires nudged higher and layoffs slipped.

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